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This is expected because the pre-period model is fit to more data points in which ENDS sales are already higherand have already offset cigarette sales to some degree

In other words, we assume that the retail prices of cigarettes, other tobacco products, and e-cigarettes would be raised to include the excise tax increase

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PMID 4422403.

As of 2026, users report significant improvements across health, financial, and lifestyle metrics within the first month of switching [6]