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Therefore, the best methodological approaches to measuring international laws effects are quasi-experimental impact evaluations.3334 Quasi-experimental research designs test descriptive causal hypotheses about manipulable causes to support a counterfactual inference about what would have happened in the absence of treatment, but lack the random assignment of units.35 Counterfactual inference can be reached using one of several approaches, such as a constant underlying time trend in the absence of an intervention (interrupted time series analysis) or a constant association between the outcome and the models explanatory variables before and after the intervention (in-sample forecast event modelling)

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